Saturday, November 12, 2016

Hillary's horrible candidacy aside, Republicans should be worrying about stagnating popular vote totals

Bush 2004: 62 million
McCain 2008: 60 million
Romney 2012: 60. 9 million
Trump 2016: 60.5 million

Republican average: 60.85
Democrat average: 63.88 (John Kerry and Hillary Clinton 60.1; Barack Obama 2x 67.7)

Republicans are just one more articulate, bright, clean, nice-looking minority person away from another slaughter.

Ya think? WaPo: "It's possible that Clinton supporters did not show up on Election Day"

The latest tally shows Hillary not getting 8.361 million votes in 2016 which Obama got in 2008. No matter what Trump's coalition was in 2016, its size shows little variation from 2008 and 2012. There was no sea change of support for his candidacy.

The answer for Clinton's loss is in the disarray among Democrats because their candidate was so horrible, which is why the media have portrayed Trump that way. It's liberal projection syndrome all over again. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate for president in at least a generation. "More sooty baggage than a 90-car freight train" was how Camille Paglia put it 3 years ago. Democrats should have listened to her.

WaPo, recognizing that the proper comparison is with 2008, not 2012:

Absent final turnout numbers, it is still too early to assess whether these shifting vote patterns are the result of differential turnout among Clinton and Trump supporters or the result of genuine voter conversion. It’s possible that a sizable chunk of Latino Clinton supporters, in addition to white women, African Americans, and Asian Americans, did not show up on Election Day. It’s also possible that a significant portion of these voters were willing to overlook Trump’s incendiary remarks and vote for him based on other factors, like the need to shake up “politics as usual.”

Friday, November 11, 2016

As usual, the stupid party doesn't even know why it won

8.748 million Democrat voters who voted for Obama in 2008 didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.

It was a battle of the midget titans, a swordfight between fleas.

That's all.

News reports headline over and over a mere 100 protesters in downtown Grand Rapids last night whining that Trump is not their president

And on election night 148,160 said he was, 48.3% of all Kent County, Michigan voters.

Back in the good old days, construction workers would have beaten up anti-Trump protesters, but not now because they're all illegal aliens

The New York Times, May 9, 1970:





Hey Ann Coulter: Republicans lost only 2 of 25 US Senate races because 4.1 million Democrats didn't turnout in 2016, 4.8 million voted for somebody else

Turnout 2008: 131.5 million
Turnout 2016: 127.4 million

Obama 2008: 69.5 million
Hillary 2016: 60.6 million


Law and order progress in Nebraska: Death penalty restored 61% to 39%, overturning legislature's 2015 ban

Politico.com

The week's biggest winner is Jeb Bush, because he can still hope someday to become America's first woman president


#NeverTrump Liberal GOP Sen. Mark Kirk defeated in IL

See ya!


Trump victory in WI in 2016 is explainable by decline in turnout relative to 2012

Trump beat Hillary in Wisconsin in 2016 by just 24,081 votes.

With turnout from 2012 down by 91,000, one could explain Trump's victory by saying Wisconsin Democrats stayed home in enough numbers in 2016 to help elect Trump. And since of the last three presidential elections turnout in Wisconsin was highest in 2012 at 3.068 million when the state helped return the incumbent Democrat to office, the argument possesses considerable plausibility.

Compared with 2008, however, this explanation fails since 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by just 6,000, not enough to account for Trump's victory over Hillary.

Both Iowa and Wisconsin were slow to the trend of turnout peaking in 2008 when the popular Democrat Obama won in an election with still unequaled turnout of 131.5 million nationwide.

Trump victory in IA was genuine and not attributable to turnout changes

Trump beat Hillary by 146,182 votes in Iowa in 2016.

The 2016 turnout was only 25,000 lower than in 2012, but 20,000 higher than in 2008.

In the last three presidential elections the turnout high in Iowa was in 2012 at 1.582 million.

#NeverTrump Sen. Kelly "Free Condoms" Ayotte defeated in NH by 743 votes

Poster girl for the muddled message.






On the third day after Election 2016 the totals remain incomplete in five states

IL 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Revulsion Election update: Trump got lucky, underperformed Romney by 1.4 million votes, McCain by 450,000 votes

Hillary underperformed Obama 2012 by 6.2 million, Obama 2008 by . . . 9.8 million.

Democrats elected Trump by not voting for Hillary.

James Pethokoukis, permanently added to the Enemies List


Sean Trende at Real Clear Politics is some expert on elections


Rush Limbaugh is repeating stupid from National Review, that Trump could have beaten Obama in 2012

This will become the new factoid to replace the "94 million not working but eating" myth and the "4 million stayed home in 2012" myth and the 99ers myth.

Heavy sigh.

Revulsion for Hillary: Some Trump victories wholly dependent on turnout undershooting 2008 levels in four high population states

TX: turnout up 0.8 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.814 million
FL: turnout up 1.0 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.12 million

PA: turnout down by 100 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 68 thousand
OH: turnout down by 400 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 454 thousand

GA: turnout up 0.1 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.231 million
NC: turnout up 0.4 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.177 million

MI: turnout down by 200 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 12 thousand
AZ: turnout down by 300 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 84 thousand

The revulsion for Hillary election: In the top 14 states by population, 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by 5.4 million net

CA: down 4.7 million
TX: up 0.8 million
FL: up 1.0
NY: down 0.5
IL: down 0.1
PA: down 0.1
OH: down 0.4
GA: up 0.1
NC: up 0.4
MI: down 0.2
NJ: down 0.7
VA: up 0.2
WA: down 0.9
AZ: down 0.3

Back out CA and the net down is 0.7 million from 2008.

Trump states had turnout net up 1.3 million from 2008. In the traditionally Democrat states Trump won, it appears to be partly due to Democrats not turning out for Hillary. Only in VA did Trump lose where turn out was up from 2008.

Clinton states apart from CA had turnout net down 2 million from 2008. 

Trump did it his way and isn't about to stop now