Raw temperature data have all been changed, 20% of it 16 times in the last 2.5 years

So says Marcia Glaze Wyatt here:

"Raw data is adjusted, sometimes justifiably (yet still injecting uncertainty), yet sometimes, arguably not justifiably, adding more uncertainty!!! Raw data have all been changed – 20% of it changed 16 times in the last 2 and a half years. This plot shows NOT the average surface T trend between 1880 and 2010, but rather the trend of changes made in the temperature anomalies (1880 to 2010) between May 2008 and May 2015. Take the month of January for comparison b/n 1915 and 2000. In May of 2008, the difference b/n January temperature anomalies for those years was 0.39oC. As of May 2015 note, the difference is 0.52oC (almost a degree F). ... And while one assumes that good intentions motivate the adjustments, one thing is obvious: temperatures adjustments prior to 1950 have resulted in a substantial cooling of the early century (20th) and adjustments made after 1950 have substantially warmed the record; consequently, the trend of temperature increase has significantly steepened over the years – a product of data changes. Is this an accurate reflection of reality? Uncertainty..."

Debt ceiling follies: The total public debt hit $18.152 trillion in mid March, but somehow the Treasury Dept. kept paying the bills for eight months without defaulting

March 2015

November 2015

Still waiting for Real Clear Politics to add the Reuters poll released over two hours ago

As usual Paul Krugman is full of crap about Republicans and jobs

Here:

"[P]rivate-sector employment is eight million higher than it was when Barack Obama took office, twice the job gains achieved under his predecessor before the recession struck."

When Barack Obama took office, W-2 employment stood at 155.4 million, and promptly fell 4.5 million. At the end of 2014 it stands at 158.2 million, 2.8 million higher than at the end of 2008, not 8 million higher.

At the same point in his presidency, George W. Bush had added 5.8 million W-2 jobs, and 7.3 million by the end of it.

Give 'em hell, Harry: The South China Sea is no more China's than the Gulf of Mexico is Mexico's

Admiral Harry Binkley Harris, Jr., Commander, USPACOM, quoted here:

Harris has been a forceful advocate within the military for challenging China’s claims to vast areas of the South China Sea. He told a Senate hearing in September that “the South China Sea is no more China’s than the Gulf of Mexico is Mexico’s.”

Carson beats Trump in another national poll, this time NBC/WSJ (last time CBS/NYT -- when ABC/WaPo flip you'll know it's a conspiracy)

Just 2 extreme heat events in Grand Rapids in the last 50 years, but 14 in the 70 years before that

Of course Ben Carson wants the debates taken off television

Television is Donald Trump's home turf.

An El Nino forecast for winter in Grand Rapids Michigan July 2015 - June 2016

Mean snowfall 66.7, predicting 47.85 inches

Mean heating degree days 6719, predicting 6148

Grand Rapids Michigan was warmer on average in October 2015 by 1.1 degrees F

The cumulative anomaly for 2015 thus declines from -18.2 to -17.1 degrees F.

That's now two months in a row with above average temperatures, helping to erase the big negative anomaly built up in the winter, and in February in particular.

Summer temperatures in GR in 2015 were below normal, so the warmer September and now October have offset that. A late or extended summer, you might say.

The cumulative anomaly in 2014 was -30.3 degrees F, and would have been even worse if not for a warm and snowless December. November set snow records here with 31 inches and the negative temperature anomaly reached -33 degrees F.

The peak negative anomaly in 2015 so far has been -22.6 degrees F through August.

It is amazing . . .

(seen here)

"Elixor" at the beginning was the tell.

China's nine-dash-line claim in the South China Sea will finally get its day in court

But China won't be there to defend it.

From the story here in The Diplomat:

On Thursday, October 29, the Permanent Court of Arbitration awarded its first decision in the The Republic of Philippines v. The People’s Republic of China. The court ruled that the case was “properly constituted” under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, that China’s “non-appearance” (i.e., refusal to participate) did not preclude the Court’s jurisdiction, and that the Philippines was within its rights in filing the case. In short, Thursday’s decision means that the Permanent Court of Arbitration rules in the Philippines’ favor on the question of jurisdiction. With the jurisdictional issue resolved, the case can move forward to evaluating the merits of the Philippines’ legal assertions in the South China Sea. ...

First, and most vexing for China, is the status of Beijing’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea. Manila argues that the nine-dash line is an excessive maritime claim and not in line with the entitlements for coastal states under UNCLOS. With jurisdiction question resolved, we can look forward to China’s nine-dash line getting its day in international court (although, notably, without China taking part to defend it). China has kept the scope of its nine-dash line ambiguous under formal and customary international law, but once the Court decides on the matter, its ability to maintain ambiguity will be limited.

Second, based on the first point, that the nine-dash line is an excessive claim, the Philippines is arguing that China’s occupation of various features in the Spratly Islands is illegal.

The New York Times criticizes Republican tax plans, pretending revenues are needed to cover spending

Here:

"All of these candidates deny fiscal reality. In the next 10 years, revenues will need to increase by 40 percent simply to keep federal spending even, per capita, with inflation and population growth. Additional revenues will be needed to pay for health care for the elderly, transportation systems and other obligations, as well as for newer challenges, including climate change. And interest on the national debt will surely rise because interest rates have nowhere to go but up."

Who is the Times trying to kid?

Revenues have never been needed to cover expenditures and they know it, and rarely have covered expenditures. Expenditures will continue to grow whether the Times or the Republicans like it or not. They are baked into the cake of the legislation that drives them. The only way to fix that is to rescind the legislation or modify it, with its built-in cost of living increases and added population coverage assumptions.

This country has run minor annual surpluses in just twelve years since 1939, doing nothing but slowing down our present arrival at $18.2 trillion in debt.

Spare us the histrionics.

The heavy hitters when it comes to spending are:

• HHS ($1 trillion, 91% of which is Medicare and Medicaid)
• Social Security ($.96 trillion)
• Defense ($.59 trillion, protecting the world without reimbursement)
• Treasury Dept. ($.57 trillion, $.4 trillion of which is interest on the debt overspending)
• Veterans ($.16 trillion, which does such a good job veterans die waiting for appointments)
• Agriculture ($.14 trillion, over half of which is the food stamp program).

Together those six account for 88% of federal spending, and the Times dares the Republicans even to think about reforming Social Security and Medicare, calling instead for higher taxes.

Meanwhile there's plenty else to cut just by axing all the other departments which account for the remaining $.48 trillion making up the 2015 fiscal outlay total of $3.9 trillion.

Let's start with the Education Dept., $76 billion, then International Assistance Programs, $22 billion.

Ka-ching! Ka-ching! You're 20% of the way there, just like that.

See how easy that was?

Latest IBD poll reverses Trump to up 11 points to 28% from 17% last time, Fiorina down 6, Kasich down 3, Bush down 2

US Senate passes House sequester buster, budget and debt ceiling package this morning at 3:00 AM

They do nothing most "weeks", which run from Tuesday to Thursday, and then ram utter crap through in hours. Bunch of goose poopers.

From the story here:

"The bill cleared on a 64-35 vote, with just 18 Republicans joining all Democrats in backing the bill. ... The debt deal had already cleared the House on Wednesday, as part of a rush by Republican leaders to get it done as quickly as possible, leaving little time for scrutiny. The 144-page deal was written late Monday, and the final Senate vote came at 3 a.m. Friday, meaning it was sped through in less than 100 hours."

Just 79 Republicans voted for new budget, blowing sequestration caps, lifting the debt ceiling to March 2017, and attempting to decide all spending for two years, a complete rout of the conservatives

The Roll Call vote is here, taken at 5:21 PM yesterday, before today's activities electing Ryan.

Boehner voted for it after engineering it. So did Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, Fred Upton, Steve Scalise, Peter King, and Kevin Brady among others.

I note Peter Roskam voted No.

The story is discussed here.

A complete travesty abdicating spending responsibility just like Cromnibus, but worse. 

Ryan did not vote for Speaker this morning, nor did Webster, but Nancy Pelosi voted . . . for herself!

Outgoing Speaker Boehner voted for Ryan.

The Roll Call is here.

The only Democrat not voting was Meeks.

The Blue Dog Democrat Cooper who got one vote to be the new Speaker was the guy who voted for Colin Powell! Being a good guy, unlike Pelosi, Cooper had to vote for someone other than himself, so Colin Powell it was. And it sure as hell wasn't going to be Pelosi now was it?

Freedom Caucus caves, Paul Ryan elected Speaker of the House

Ryan received 236 votes for the Speakership on the floor of the House this morning, Nancy Pelosi 184. 432 votes out of 435 were cast. I'm assuming Boehner, Pelosi and Ryan didn't vote.

The Republican Caucus in the House numbers 247 in the 114th Congress. The Democrats 188.

Story here.

45 Republicans voted against Ryan yesterday in caucus, but today Florida Republican Dan Webster received just 9 votes of the 12 cast for candidates other than Ryan and Pelosi (Webster voted for himself?).

Blue Dog Democrat Jim Cooper (TN), Democrat John Lewis (GA) and Colin Powell (!) each received one vote.

Rand Paul's warped view of unfunded liabilities

"Your grandparents had too many kids."

No Rand, we didn't have enough.

Libertarian moron.

Huge flipflop tonight by Ben Carson on oil subsidies and ethanol

Said he was wrong to propose taking away oil subsidies to support others, never mentioning he originally meant Iowans and their ethanol back in April. Now he's supposedly against helping any industry.

So Carson finally gets ahead in the polls in Iowa pledging to boost ethanol at big oil's expense and then throws Iowa under the bus.

Breathtaking. The guy's a liberal at heart.