Tuesday, October 4, 2016

With 35 days to go to the election, Hillary steals a march on Trump in the last week: Electoral College forecast is now Hillary 321, Trump 217

With 35 days to go to the election, Hillary steals a march on Trump in the last week: Electoral College forecast is now Hillary 321, Trump 217.

Last week it was Clinton 292, Trump 246.

Things have deteriorated for Trump in the last week by 12%.

Nevada, Colorado and North Carolina have shifted as Toss-Ups back to Clinton, and New Hampshire and Virginia have moved out of Toss-Up into the Clinton column totaling 205.

The Real Clear Politics Electoral College Map has Clinton with 205, Trump 165 and 168 in "Toss-Up".

Based only on the polls in the Toss-Ups as of this morning, Clinton is winning 116 of those, and Trump 51.

Clinton is ahead in:

NV +0.2
CO +3.3
MN +4.3
WI +5.0
MI +5.0
PA +3.5
NC +0.2
FL +2.8
ME-1 +17

Trump is ahead in:

AZ +2.2
IA +5.0
OH +3.8
GA +4.8
ME-2 +8.7

Based only on these polls, Trump's top objectives should be winning Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida, and keeping Arizona and Ohio.