This El Nino looks about done, with the last running 3-month mean value coming to just 0.7 on the index. Anything below 0.5 next time will mean we are truly finished with it.
Five months after peak, the fall-off has come to almost 70% of peak value, a little less impressive than the fall-off of over 78% similarly measured for the 1997-98 episode.
The 1997-98 very strong El Nino was 13 months long and averaged 1.56 on the index.
The 1982-83 VSE was 15 months long and averaged 1.33.
The weather will be a changin'.
